Author: Fanack Water Editorial Team
Floods Bring an Old Dispute Back to the Surface
Early October saw rising Nile waters inundate parts of Egypt and Sudan, destroying farmland, swamping coastal villages, and reigniting tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). In northern Egypt, residents of the Nile Delta navigated flooded streets by boat. Sudan’s Bahri district near Khartoum saw more than 1,200 families displaced amid record flooding (Reuters, StratNews Global).
Egypt’s Ministry of Irrigation quickly linked the floods to what it called “reckless, unilateral water releases” from the GERD, operated by Ethiopia on the Blue Nile. Officials in Cairo claimed that sudden water discharges — following the dam’s September inauguration — may have intensified the late-season floods hitting both Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopia denies this, citing record monsoon rains as the main culprit.
The Political Undercurrent
The GERD, which Ethiopia inaugurated on September 9, 2025, is now Africa’s largest hydroelectric project, capable of generating over 5,000 megawatts of power. While it promises energy and economic growth for Addis Ababa, the dam remains fiercely contested by downstream neighbors Egypt and Sudan. Both countries are demanding a legally binding agreement that would regulate how Ethiopia fills and operates the dam, especially during droughts (DW).
Egypt calls the Nile a “matter of existence, not subject to compromise.” The river provides nearly 97% of its renewable water supply, and any disruption could threaten food production and rural livelihoods. Sudan echoes this concern, citing risks to its Roseires Dam and irrigation systems if Ethiopia’s water releases are unpredictable. Both nations accuse Addis Ababa of violating international norms by operating the GERD without coordination.
Ethiopia’s Position and the Long Road to Consensus
Ethiopia maintains that the dam is vital for its development. It argues that the project, largely self-funded and conducted within its borders, does not significantly harm downstream nations. The Ethiopian government insists that the GERD allows more controlled flows over time, reducing the historic volatility of the Nile. Its stance is rooted in sovereignty and what officials call “equitable utilization” of transboundary resources (Horydoly).
Still, attempts to find common ground — through the African Union, the United States, and World Bank — have produced no lasting agreement. The 2015 Declaration of Principles signed in Khartoum outlined broad commitments to cooperation but fell short of specifying how the dam would be managed during droughts or exceptional floods. For Egypt and Sudan, that remains the most urgent—and unresolved—question (Horn Review).
Climate Change Complicates the Equation
This year’s Nile surge underscores the growing unpredictability of the river’s flow under shifting climate conditions. Researchers warn that as rainfall patterns change in Ethiopia’s highlands, where much of the Nile’s water originates, the combination of extreme floods and prolonged droughts could make cooperation even more critical. Sudan’s ongoing internal conflict has further weakened its flood response capacity, leaving millions at heightened risk (The Tribune).
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Sudan’s Abdel Fattah al-Burhan met in Cairo last week, reaffirming their united stance against “unilateral actions” on the Blue Nile. They agreed to enhance coordination on water security and establish new communication channels to anticipate sudden flood events and manage water-sharing disputes (Daily News Egypt).
Searching for a Way Forward
Analysts suggest that a breakthrough may require a mix of technical and political compromise. The United States recently announced support for a “technical mediation framework” to help calibrate Ethiopia’s water releases and reduce downstream risk (Business Insider Africa). For now, the question is whether the three countries can rebuild enough trust to prevent future floods—or potential flashpoints.
As Nile levels swell again this season, the river’s waters are once more dividing those who depend on them most. The GERD stands complete—but consensus, it seems, remains stubbornly elusive.